How do you predict the weather?
~The power of clouds, wind, and computers~
The weather forecast appears on the morning news and on smartphone screens.
When someone says, "It's going to rain this afternoon," you think about whether or not to take an umbrella.
But have you ever wondered?
How can we know what the future weather will be like if it hasn't happened yet?
This time, let's take a closer look at the secrets of weather forecasting!
How do we study the movement of clouds and wind?
To predict the weather,Current skyIt is important to know in detail. To achieve this, in Japan and around the world,Dataare collecting.
-On the ground気象観測所Check the temperature, wind, and humidity
-Investigating the high skies using airplanes and balloons
-Artificial satellite,レーダーObserve the movement of clouds and rain in the sky in real time.
In other words, many eyes look around the sky,数字This is "observationThis is a process called "
How do you use the observed data?
The collected data issupercomputerIt is sent to a very smart computing machine calledBased on the mechanisms of "atmospheric movement" and "cloud formation"weather modelUse it to calculate future weather.This mechanism is similar to the AI used in shogi.
"If this is how it is now, then this will probably happen next," it calculates multiple possible scenarios at once and chooses the most likely future.
Why does it still fail?
Some people say, "Weather forecasts are sometimes wrong..."NATUREBut it doesn't work 100% the way I want it to.Japan in particular has many mountains and oceans, so rain clouds can suddenly form and wind direction can change easily.However, the accuracy of forecasts today has improved dramatically compared to the past. For example, the accuracy of "tomorrow's weather" isApproximately 85% or moreIt is said.Every day, many people strive to make their predictions as accurate as possible.
Globally connected weather forecast
Did you know that weather forecasting doesn't just work in Japan?The clouds and wind国境It will come beyond that.For example, most of the clouds that bring rain to Japan come from the direction of China or Korea.Countries around the world are working togetherSharing weather dataWe are sharing SpaceInformation from andGlobal movementBy considering this, we can learn what the sky will look like in the future.
Let's make a weather forecast
If you were a weather forecaster, what would you do to make your forecasts accurate?
There are likely to be many different ideas, such as using AI or using drones to look inside the clouds.
So, do you know what a "weather forecaster" is? To become a weather forecaster, you must pass the weather forecaster exam administered by the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center and be registered by the Director-General of the Japan Meteorological Agency.The weather forecaster exam is a difficult one with a pass rate of about 5%But I passed this testThe youngest record is 11 years and 11 months old.
It would be fun for you to become a "weather expert" and try to make predictions by looking at the sky yourself. Just looking up at the sky and thinking, "What will the clouds look like today and what will they be like tomorrow?" is a step towards becoming a little scientist!
